Up til today Championship Week had not produced any surprises.  Other than Connecticut, every bubble team won at least one conference tournament game and the bid thieves had stayed away.  Then came today.  Conference USA bubble teams Memphis and UAB both fell in the quarterfinals.  Memphis was on the bubble for sure but UAB needed a win and now the Blazers are on the outside looking in.  Furthermore, Houston will play Southern Miss in the semifinals, meaning one of those teams will head to the title game with the chance to steal a bid.  Now the stage is set for Georgia Tech, Arizona State and possibly Washington to fill the void left by at least one Conference USA team. 

Meanwhile, Marquette just keeps on winning and the probability that the Big East gets eight bids is very strong.  With the 80-76 win over Villanova the Golden Eagles head to the Big East semis to play Georgetown but more importantly the victory locks up a spot for Marquette.  I'm also putting Louisville in the lock column so if Cincinnati can do the impossible and win five games in five days the Big East might get nine bids.

No automatic bids today but the field will continue to shift well into the night.

Automatic Bids: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's, Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Oakland, Robert Morris, Montana

Locks: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Florida State, Louisville, Marquette

At-Large Probables: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, UTEP, Notre Dame

Bubble Teams: Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Illinois, UAB, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona State, Florida, Utah State, Georgia Tech, Memphis

Outside Looking In: South Florida, Charlotte, Dayton, Connecticut, Minnesota, Marshall, Tulsa, Kent State, Wichita State, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, UAB

All of the bubble action today comes from New York as day two of the Big East Tournament is underway.  Marquette's 57-55 win over St. John's wasn't pretty and it certainly wasn't impressive but it's a win and that's all that counts right now.  I'm not ready to call the Golden Eagles a lock just yet but a victory over Villanova tomorrow coupled with a firm bubble should ensure Marquette an at-large bid.

I say it's a firm bubble because thus far Championship Week has played out the way it should.  Butler's thrashing of Wright State last night means there will be no bid thieves to watch for until the weekend.  Teams like Seton Hall and Rhode Island that were desperate for wins yesterday got them.  Seton Hall faces another rugged matchup tonight against Notre Dame and the loser could be off the bubble.

Butler's automatic bid reduced the number of locks to 29 but upon closer inspection of the ACC, I'm moving Florida State into the lock category before the conference tournament begins.  The Seminoles played well down the stretch, scored a nice win over Wake Forest in the final week of the season and they have a head-to-head tiebreaker over Virginia Tech.  With 10 wins in the conference Florida State won't need a win this weekend.

Two more automatic bids get handed out with the finals of the NEC and Big Sky Tournaments.  Here's how the field looks as of Wednesday afternoon:

Automatic Bids: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's, Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Oakland

Locks: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Florida State

At-Large Probables: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, UTEP

Bubble Teams: Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Illinois, UAB, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona State, Florida, Utah State, Georgia Tech

Outside Looking In: South Florida, Charlotte, Dayton, Connecticut, Minnesota, Marshall, Tulsa, Kent State, Wichita State, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

With the Big East tournament underway there's already movement on and off the bubble.  South Florida stays alive for another day with a win over DePaul while Connecticut is out after getting embarrassed by St. John's.  Three automatic bids go out tonight with most of the focus on the Horizon League.  Will Wright State be the first bid thief of 2010?  The Summit League and Sun Belt also wrap up their respective conference tournaments.

With Gonzaga's loss last night the number of locks doesn't change but as usual, the fate of bubble teams is changing by the minute.  Rhode Island and Dayton face crucial games in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 tournament while Seton Hall is in a must-win situation in the nightcap of the Big East tourney.

Automatic Bids: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's, Wofford

Locks: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga

At-Large Probables: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, UTEP

Bubble Teams: Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Illinois, UAB, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona State, Florida, Utah State, South Florida

Outside Looking In: Charlotte, Dayton, Connecticut, Minnesota, Marshall, Tulsa, Kent State, Wichita State, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

Four more automatic bids go out tonight and it's been so far, so good for the bubble teams.  There have been no surprises in the mid-major conference tournaments as Northern Iowa won the MVC yesterday, Gonzaga plays for the WCC title tonight while Butler hosts the Horizon League final tomorrow.

The four championship games tonight are solid, with the most notable being the West Coast game between Gonzaga and St. Mary's.  Gonzaga in a lock but for St. Mary's it will be a long week on the bubble if the Gaels lose tonight.  The thinking was that if St. Mary's could get to the championship game that would be enough to put them in the field.  But no one wants to be sitting on that bubble hoping the bid thieves don't slice into the at-large field.

The Colonial Championship game features a solid Old Dominion team that probably doesn't have enough juice to make it as an at-large team.  Same thing for the MAAC's Siena.  The Saints face Fairfield while Old Dominion plays William & Mary.  The Southern Conference final pits division winners Appalachian State and Wofford.

With Northern Iowa's win there are now 30 locks, meaning at least four at-large bids will be at stake as the week plays out.

Automatic Bids: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa

Locks: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga

At-Large Probables: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, UTEP

Bubble Teams: Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Illinois, UAB, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona State, Florida, St. Mary's, Utah State

Outside Looking In: Charlotte, Dayton, Connecticut, South Florida, Minnesota, Old Dominion, Marshall, Tulsa, Siena, Kent State, Wichita State, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

The first three conference tournament automatic bids go out today as the Big South, Ohio Valley and Atlantic Sun conferences hold their tourney finals.  Cornell earned the first automatic bid in the Ivy League by clinching the regular season title last night (the Ivy League does not hold a conference tournament.)

There are a few changes from last week's first look at Bracketeering.  As of Saturday afternoon (and believe me, this time of year it can change by the minute) there are 31 locks coming from 11 different conferences.  That means there should be between three and fourteen at-large bids up for grabs.

Automatic Bids: Cornell

Locks: Richmond, Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler, Northern Iowa, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga

Probables: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Marquette, UAB, UTEP

Bubble Teams: Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Illinois, Memphis, San Diego State, Florida, St. Mary's, Utah State

Outside Looking In: Charlotte, Dayton, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Minnesota, Old Dominion, Marshall, Tulsa, Siena, Kent State, Wichita State, UNLV, Arizona State, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

Championship Week unofficially gets underway Tuesday with the unique Horizon League tournament and a four-pack of games that features both Milwaukee and Green Bay.  The winners of the four first round games will meet in the second round and the winners there move on to the semifinals to face either Butler or Wright State.  Regular season excellence is rewarded as the top two teams get two byes and the higher seeded teams get a home game for the first round.

The Panthers face Illinois-Chicago in the first round.  The two teams just met in the season finale with Milwaukee winning 78-74.  The Panthers also beat the Flames in their first meeting 57-52 back on December 3.  The Horizon League was bunched up this year after the top three spots and a five game conference winning streak allowed the Panthers to secure the four seed and a home game for the first round.  A win means the Panthers would face either Cleveland State or Loyola in Indianapolis on Friday.

Alot of eyes will be on top seed Butler when the semifinals begin on Saturday.  With a 26-4 record and impressive wins over Ohio State and Siena the Bulldogs are a lock to the make the NCAA Tournament and are the only team in the league worthy of a spot in the Big Dance.  Someone's bubble will burst if Butler is defeated but that likely won't happen.  The Bulldogs have had few close calls in conference play and have hardly been tested since the middle of January.

A possible semifinal date between #2 Wright State and #3 Green Bay looks like the best matchup of the tournament.  The two teams split during the regular season and of course would avoid playing Butler until the championship game.  The Raiders won 19 games during the regular season while the Phoenix won 20 and both have the makeup of a bid thief.  The Phoenix open with Youngstown State and then would face the winner of the Valparaiso-Detroit game should Green Bay win the opening game.

With February fading into the past college basketball takes center stage as the madness is about to ensue.  We're all about to be bombarded with talk of bracketology, bubble teams and bid thieves.  So I'll throw in my two cents worth on the landscape of college basketball with a look at who is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, who's likely to get in and who's got some work to do.

As I see it there are 27 teams that are locks to make the NCAA Tournament and those 27 teams come from 11 different conferences.  That means there will be anywhere between seven and 18 at-large bids available for bubble teams.  Adding to the zaniness of this year it appears there are more locks from the Atlantic Ten then the ACC.  Indeed, the ACC and the Big East will be two conference tournaments to watch next week.

Locks: Xavier, Richmond, Temple, Duke, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler, Northern Iowa, BYU, New Mexico, California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga

Probables: Rhode Island, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Illinois, UAB, UTEP, San Diego State, Florida, St. Mary's

On The Bubble: Dayton, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Old Dominion, Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa, Siena, UNLV, Arizona State, Washington, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Utah State

Bid thief.  Defined as a team that wins an automatic bid but was not expected to earn an at-large birth to the NCAA Tournament.  If you're like Marquette and you're on the bubble in March a bid thief can ruin your season.  So on the eve of BracketBusters Weekend, when the always-susceptible-to-bid-thieves mid-major powerhouses take center stage, watch out for these potential party poopers:

Wichita State (MVC, 21-6, 53rd in RPI) Northern Iowa is about as close to being a mid-major lock for the tournament as possible.  The Panthers are ranked, have a 23-3 record and have the 23rd best RPI in the country.  Wichita State's resume isn't as impressive but the Shockers have put together a good season, including a 60-51 win over Northern Iowa on January 19.  Wichita State will face WAC powerhouse Utah State for BracketBusters and that could be a springboard to a surprise run through the Missouri Valley.

Green Bay (Horizon, 18-10, 100th in RPI) The Horizon League is known for bid thieves as Cleveland State stole one last season.  Like Northern Iowa, Butler is a juggernaut and powering through the conference.  The likelihood of the Bulldogs grabbing an at-large bid is high so bubble teams are hoping Green Bay or Wright State don't steal one away.

Portland (WCC, 16-8, 74th in RPI) The West Coast Conference is a tricky one as Gonzaga and St. Mary's are both eying up the NCAA Tournament.  St. Mary's has a bit more work to do and that will make the WCC tournament very interesting.  The Pilots have been hanging around the top of the conference and are only a half-game behind St. Mary's in the standings.  That win over the Gaels last weekend will loom large if Portland can grab the #2 seed in the conference tourney.

Every year somebody somewhere makes the claim that the NCAA Tournament field should expand from its current number of 65.  Bo Ryan jumpstarted this year's debate last week.  It makes me wonder: why must people feel the need to tinker with a good thing?

Look, the NCAA Tournament and specifically the selection process is not perfect.  But part of what makes college basketball great is the debating that goes on during Championship Week regarding who should get in and who should be out.  Terms like "bubble teams" and "bid thieves" are part of a sports fan's lexicon exclusively because of college basketball.  The first thing I was look for once the tournament field is set is who missed the cut.  Every year there are about half dozen teams that have a strong enough résumé but didn't make the field.  Usually there are one or two teams that have a strong case to get in but because of lack of quality wins or weak RPI that team is out. 

So fine, expand the field to 68, meaning there would be four play-in games instead of one.  Of course, there will still be bubble teams but again that's a great part of the 48 hours leading up to Selection Sunday.  Desperation sets in and teams know they're playing of their tournament lives.  Isn't that what everyone looks at?  Every bracketologist out there will list the last four teams in and the last four teams out.

If you expand to 96 you are basically taking the field as it is now and adding virtually the entire NIT field.  Did you watch the NIT last year?  Chances are you didn't.  Why not?  Because those teams were for the most part unimpressive during the regular season.  With so many automatic bids in college basketball the regular season carries little significance when compared to college football, where winning and winning big is necessary.  Now, back to the NIT.  Take a look at last year's bracket.  Many considered St. Mary's and Florida among those "last four teams out."  A small expansion of three teams would allow tourney-worthy teams like the Gaels and Gators to play in the NCAAs.  But aside from those teams in a field of 96 you'd be including 17-15 Washington State, 16-14 Georgetown and 22-9 Tennessee-Martin.  Pop quiz: what conference does Tennessee-Martin play in?  How about Jacksonville?  Niagara?

Last season Georgetown was 7-11 in conference play while Washington State was 8-10.  With 65 teams you can bypass a lackluster season by winning the conference tournament.  But if you don't get that automatic bid you'd better put up some impressive wins.  With a 96 team field you can still have a lackluster season, have a losing conference record, not get an automatic bid yet still qualify for the NCAA Tournament.  Why reward that kind of mediocrity?  At least with an automatic bid you have to earn it by winning three games in three days and beat some of the best teams in your conference.  All you need is a pulse to make the field of 96.

Again, the NCAA Tournament isn't perfect.  But it is competitive and it keeps the regular season competitive.  Expanding the field by nearly 50% waters down the bracket and makes the regular season virtually irrelevant.  No longer would mid-major schools need to win 25 regular season games.  No longer will a .500 conference record serve as a baseline for major programs.  No longer will you need to make a deep run during Championship Week if you're on that bubble.  Increasing the NCAA Tournament will decrease the excitement of March Madness.