Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, but if he is not healthy the Packers chances drop to 65 percent. The Packers should easily win because Tampa Bay will have rookie Josh Freeman starting and the Packers are 4th in the league in interceptions. If Freeman has 2+ INTs (35 percent chance) then Tampa Bay has a slim 9 percent chance. If Freeman throws no more than 1 INT and Cadillac Williams has a big game with at least 75 rushing yards TB is a slight 52 percent favorite. There is just an 18 percent chance of this scenario happening.
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