Packers Paper Tigers in 3-Team Race?

Donald Lee. | Photo: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Tools

Packers Paper Tigers in 3-Team Race?

By By Jay Sorgi

Next game: Monday, November 24 at New Orleans
Packers Gameday at 4:30 p.m. on Newsradio 620 WTMJ and a live blog here

Well, what we predicted to be a two-team match race for the NFC North crown has now become a three-way tussle between three 5-5 squads in what observers outside the division might call the NFC Mediocre.

The Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings each stand at 5-5 entering the final six games of the 2008 campaign.

Certainly, the Packers showed they have a current leg up on the Bears with their 37-3 pasting of Chicago on Sunday.

Remaining Games
Week Packers Bears Vikings
12 at NO at StL at Jax
13 CAR at Min CHI
14 HOU JAX at Det
15 at Jax NO at Ari
16 at Chi GB ATL
17 DET at Hou NYG
But do they have a leg up in the race to come?

Not necessarily.

How can that be, with the steadiest offense in the division and the North's most opportunistic defense, to the tune of seven touchdowns produced this year?

It's the fact that in this three-team race, the course the three squads are running is far from the same.

Using records and home fields as guides, let's go week by week at each stage of the remaining battle and how the pundits - not necessarily me - probably would predict.

Week 12:
Green Bay at New Orleans (5-5)
Chicago at Saint Louis (2-8)
Minnesota at Jacksonville (4-6)

The Packers-Saints game is highly interesting - the worst team in the NFC South against the best of the North. The Packers' have a good-to-great offense going against a sickeningly bad defense, while the Saints' free-wheeling attack - the best offense statistically in the NFL - goes up against a defense that offers perhaps the NFC's best secondary.

They will need to be against the Saints' attack.

I personally would call this a very close win for Green Bay, but I'm not sure most people outside Packers Nation would.

Chicago at the Rams is nearly as "gimme" of a win as any we'll see in this comparison that doesn't involve the Lions. The Vikings-Jacksonville game actually bears similarities to Packers-Saints, but the Vikes seem to have enough to probably top the Jaguars.

Forecasted "on-paper" standings after Week 12:
Chicago 6-5
Minnesota 6-5
Green Bay 5-6

Week 13:
Carolina (8-2) at Green Bay
Chicago at Minnesota

Two tantalizing games that NFL fans in and out of the Upper Midwest might salivate over.

The Panthers are probably the best remaining litmus test the Packers have as to whether they can beat a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Carolina is easily the second-best team in the NFC with balance on all fronts. It's a true challenge for Green Bay that I'm not sure they're up to.

Chicago at Minnesota? That's a who knows? game if any with these schizophrenic squads.

The paper pundits probably go home field here.

Forecasted "on-paper" standings after Week 13:
Minnesota 7-5
Chicago 6-6
Green Bay 5-7

Continued: Weeks 14-15

Part 1 | 2 | 3Next >

More Shows