For Republican political junkies, the magic number is 41.  That's the number of seats that the GOP needs to pick up from Democrats in November 2010 in order to take back control of the House of Representatives.

     41 might seem like a lot of seats to pick up - and it is.  Remember though, during the 1994 midterm elections, Republicans won 56 seats.  Therefore -  given the President's declining poll numbers, the nation's high unemployment rate and the public dissatisfaction with the health care bill currently being rammed through Congress - 41 is certainly not out of reach.

     No matter how you add the numbers however, the road to 41 starts in Wisconsin - and a lot of good people are hitting the road.

     Second-term Congressman Steve Kagen  (pictured below with Barbara Lawton) is arguably one of the most vulnerable members of Congress.  Kagen, a political gadfly, is largely an accident of history having been swept into office in the anti-Bush, anti-GOP fervor of the last two election cycles.  Now, having to run on his own dubious merits and heading into a political headwind, smart money suggests that Kagen will be on the outside looking in come January of 2011.

     Still, you can't be somebody with nobody.  Fortunately, there are a lot of "somebodies" lining up to run against Kagen.

     In an indication of how weak Kagen is perceived to be, there are already seven Republicans in the race to replace him.  These candidates include former State Representative Terri McCormick, Brown County Supervisor and attorney Andy Williams, Door County Supervisor Marc Savard and Howard physician Marc Trager.

     To me though, the most intriguing candidate is State Representative Roger Roth from Grand Chute.  Roth, the nephew of former U.S. Representative Toby Roth, is in his second term in the State Assembly.  Roth is also a member of the Wisconsin Air National Guard who has served multiple tours of duty in Iraq.     

     A lot can happen between now and the primary election next September.  Still, I think two things are certain.  First, Roth is the early leader in the race for the GOP nomination.  Second, regardless of who comes out of the Republican primary, that candidate will be a far superior alternative than credibility challenged, straight party line voting Steve Kagen.

     I don't know yet if the Republicans can pick up 41 Congressional seats nationwide. I do think however that they can pick up the Kagen seat and perhaps one more from Wisconsin.

     In any event, Wisconsin will definitely be a player in helping the GOP find the 41 it needs - and the search starts in the Fox River Valley!