It's tough to figure out who is having a worse few weeks: Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Manny Parra or Barack Obama?

     The good news for Obama is that the election is seven weeks away.  The bad news is that everything his campaign is currently trying - isn't working (kind of like the Brewers).

     Yesterday, I wrote about McCain's path to the White House - hold Ohio and Virginia (where he's currently leading) and pick up ten electoral votes from somewhere.  That "somewhere" could come from McCain winning either Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin or Minnesota (all of which have at least ten electoral votes).

     Up until today, Minnesota had been considered to be "leaning" to Obama.  However, that changed with release of two new post-convention polls which show the race either tied or Obama  up by only 2 points.  As a result, Minnesota has shifted from "leaning Obama" to being a toss-up.

     Between Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, I continue to believe that McCain's best chance for a "pick-up" lies with Michigan.  Still, assuming that McCain can hold Virginia and Ohio, Obama absolutely has to win all four of these other States. The practical effect is that Obama will have to spend a lot of time and resources campaigning in these four States - perhaps freeing McCain to concentrate his efforts elsewhere (like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada).

     There's certainly enough time left for the wheels to come off McCain's campaign.  After all, who would have thought two weeks ago that the Brewers would find themselves in the position they're now in?  I also have no doubt that the Obama campaign and its allies in the mainstream media (like Charlie Gibson) will come up with one or more "October surprises" for John McCain and Sarah Palin. 

     Still, as of mid-September, the McCain campaign is clearly doing a lot better than many of us anticipated earlier this year.

     Remember the math for McCain: Hold two and pick up ten!