I took a long look at the Electoral College map yesterday.  For the first time this campaign season, I think John McCain has become the favorite to win the Presidential race in November.

     Since the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, McCain has retained a small but consistent lead in most national polls.  However, while the popular vote is indicative of how a campaign is doing, getting elected President is about getting 270 electoral votes.  Based on current data, it seems that McCain's path to 270 will be a lot easier than Obama's.

     According to the RealClearPolitics map of the Electoral College, Obama is leading (either solid or leaning) in States with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain is leading (again either solid or leaning) in States with 227 votes.  So how does McCain get the extra 43?

     The answer is: hold Ohio and Virginia and pick up one (or perhaps two) more.

     In 2004, President Bush won Virginia's 13 electoral votes by 8%.  Earlier in the year, Democrats thought they had a chance to flip Virginia - however recent polls show McCain leading by 2 to 4 points. A "hold" for the GOP in Virginia is looking more likely.

     In 2004, President Bush won Ohio's 20 electoral votes by 2%.  Since then, Ohio has been the Democrat's top target for a flip.  Despite being a priority State for the Obama campaign, McCain is currently pulling out to a modest lead in most polls.  During the next 50+ days of the campaign, McCain-Palin will obviously be spending a lot of time campaigning in Ohio (it's a crucial "hold").  However the trend, at least for the moment, is positive.

     Add Ohio and Virginia to the States already in McCain's column and you get 260 votes.  So where do the rest come from?

     In 2004, John Kerry won Pennsylvania (21 votes), Michigan (17 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes) and Minnesota (10 votes).   At present, Obama is leading in all four - but the leads (at least in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are extremely narrow.

     In Michigan, the most recently released poll has McCain ahead.  Most polls though show him trailing by a couple of points. Post-conventions polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania  also only have Obama up two or three points.  If McCain is able to win any one of these three States - or Minnesota (for which there is no recent polling data), McCain wins.

     Of these four States, I think Michigan offers the best opportunity for a GOP "flip".  Regardless, to be elected President, Obama absolutely must hold all four.  He will, accordingly, have to spend a lot of time and resources doing so.

     However, there are lots of other plausible ways for McCain to win the election - even without Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota.

     Colorado (9 votes), Nevada (6 votes), New Mexico (5 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes) are also in play.  Post-convention polls show Obama leading in Colorado (+3) and New Hampshire while McCain has narrow leads in Nevada and New Mexico.

     If McCain wins in Colorado (which went for the GOP in 2004), he can win by picking up any one of Nevada, New Mexico or New Hampshire. While I think holding Colorado is crucial, McCain can lose Colorado but still get elected by winning Nevada and New Mexico.

     If you're looking for a spoiler, look at Washington (11 votes).  Once assumed to be a lock for Obama, recent polls suggest that McCain has pulled within the margin of error.  If McCain somehow can pick up Washington (imagine a late night on November 4), this race is over.

     A lot of things can happen between now and November.  The McCain campaign can cetainly lose its current momentum and Obama can come on strong.  That said, simply looking at the Electoral College map, it seems that McCain's path to victory is a lot more direct than Obama's.

     Hold Ohio; hold Virginia; pick up ten from somewhere - and it's "Hello President McCain and Vice-President Palin".