That pungent fragrance isn't emanating from your fridge--it's wafting south from Lambeau Field.

       Sunday's 35-31 loss to Carolina has Packers fans wondering if this team can still earn a playoff berth despite it's inability to string together four solid quarters of football from it's offense, defense and special teams.

        It also has a lot of us wondering what's the difference between  this year's 5-7 unit and the one last year that went 13-3 before pounding Seattle in the playoffs to advance to the NFC title game.      Yes, the Packers were THIS close to a trip to the Super Bowl before the Giants prevailed in overtime.

        One obvious difference--the departure of Brett Favre, but I honestly don't know if things would be any better with him in Green Bay this fall.     Aaron Rodgers is solid, occasionally spectacular but sometimes frustrating: just like his predecessor.     He has yet to bring this team from behind in the closing minutes, but he was able to dig the Packers out of  a big hole Sunday before his pick ended any hope of a comeback.

        The lines are pretty much the same on both sides of the ball.     Same in the secondary.

        Sure, there are injuries: Nick Barnett and Cullen Jenkins on defense, plus Ryan Grant's early nicks and the o-line's occasional shuffles.     But all in all, the depth chart didn't morph significantly.

        Which brings me to my point: sometimes, it's just your year, and you'd better pounce when the opportunity permits.

        The Packers won their first four 2007 games and were 10-1 before the loss at Dallas.      They opened against an Eagles team that forgot how to catch punts.     They caught the Giants and Chargers early in the season before those two squads jelled into postseason contenders.    Late-game heroics salvaged wins against the Broncos and Chiefs.       Green Bay swept the Vikings and Lions.      Oakland and St. Louis were gifts from the scheduling gods.     Hell, the Packers even beat the Panthers.      They won close games, and logged their share of blow-out victories.    Dallas got off to an early lead in beating the Packers late in the season, and the Bears had their number twice.     And, when it looked as though the postseason would mean another trip to Dallas, the Giants went ahead and beat the Cowboys to give Green Bay the home field for the NFC Championship.      Injuries were far and few between.     The rest of the division put up token opposition.     In all, a charmed season.

        Not so in '08.     Yes, the defense is occasionally opportunistic, forcing turnovers that more often than not turn into points but it can't stop the run and the pass rush is non-existent.     Sure, Rodgers is more than capable but has yet to come through late in games.     The special teams are anything but.       Derick Frost is a good holder, but a terrible punter.     

         In a word, this team just...isn't....that....good.

          The Packers' postseason fate is now out of their hands.      Winning out guarantees nothing unless the Bears and Vikings flail.    If this were last season, I'd say there's a good chance the chips will fall Green Bay's way.       This year?       Not so much.

        I'll be shocked if the Packers win the NFC North and amazed if they'd go very far in the playoffs.      Deficiencies that weren't deal breakers last season are glaring, obvious holes that other teams are exploiting in 2008.        Even Mike McCarthy is getting flak, to the point where the front office is reprimanding reporters for being "disrespectful" at last week's news conference.    

         McCarthy didn't suddenly grow stupid between last year and this season.     Ted Thompson didn't morph into a chimp.      Good, solid football people don't grow soft in an off-season.       Football is a game of plays.       Green Bay players made 'em in '07.      They aren't in '08.      

        That's why a team that went 13-3 last season is now 5-7 with four losses of four points or less.     It's not swagger.    It's not leaders.     That stuff is generated on the field with smart play that results in victories.     It's not anointed on someone, or sewn on like a uniform patch.      It's earned.       You saw it last season.     You aren't in "08.   

         And, it's not going to make it's presence known until some of the guys in green and gold start making plays and generating their own good fortune.     Luck is the residue of hard work, they say.

         It's time to get really busy, boys.