Leave it to me to make a bet for beer with a guy who owns a liquor store.

        My buddy Mike from Consumer Beverage in Hales Corners is an enthusiastic and knowledgable Packers fan.      Even when he's swamped at the checkout, he always finds time to talk football with me.

       So it was a few weeks ago as the first word of Brett Favre's "itch" was being made public.      This was before the Hall of Fame dinner, and the ESPY's, and Greta Van Susteren.        This was when the thought of Favre coming back was in it's primitive stages, when minds were still trying to get themselves around the fact that those March tears were just so much soiled Kleenex.      

        As Mike and I talked that night, I honestly believed that Favre, if he came back, would play again for the Packers, that there was no way Green Bay would peddle God's gift to Canton and that cooler heads would somehow prevail.         When Mike pressed me for a prediction, I blurted it out: "I think Favre will be the Pack's starting quarterback on opening night against the Vikings."

       Before Mike could say, "Cash, or charge?" he said, "No way.   I'll bet you he's anywhere but in Green Bay."     Before I knew it, I was shaking hands, with a 12 pack at stake.

       Mike may well be right.     And, if you believe SI.com writer Don Banks, that "anywhere" could well be Favre's estate near Hattiesburg, Mississippi:

         "As the days have continued to click by in the never-ending Brett Favre un-retirement saga, I've been getting the increasingly stronger hunch that the eventual outcome is going to be that Favre plays for no one in 2008. As in, stays retired. As in, never mind. As in, the mother of all much ado about nothings when everything is said and done. Thanks for coming, and keep in touch.

          Obviously the situation is about as fluid as they come -- and that's just in Favre's still indecisive mind -- but unless the Jets or Bucs convince him to accept a trade by making a passionate case for why they're a great fit for the ex-Packer, I don't think he's going to be able to talk himself into taking the plunge in either New York or Tampa Bay.

          Reading between the lines, I think two things are pretty clear by now: First, Favre completely underestimated the blowback to his belated attempt to walk into the Packers' 2008 plans at virtually the last minute, without the benefit of attending even one offseason workout. He had no idea that anyone would challenge his right to re-claim the throne in Green Bay, and he's shocked and hurt by the reaction to his attempted restoration.

         Which leads into my second observation about Favre's messy situation: He got here because he seems incapable of thinking anything out longer than 15 minutes into the future. As one NFL defensive coordinator told me this week: "He's not a guy who's ever been very reflective. He just reacts to what's in front of him. That's exactly the way he played quarterback, and that's how he's handling this. He makes it all up as he goes. Watching this story unfold is like watching him play. It's that same free-wheeling nature that he played with. He just thinks he'll figure it out on the fly, like always.''

        But I have my doubts that there's any way Favre is going under-hand shovel pass his way out of this conundrum. He wants to play. But the Packers aren't going to let him play it completely his way, as he's always done in the past. And my growing sense is that Favre won't end up playing at all.

        Banks makes two great points--that Favre grossly underestimated the lack of traction his attempted Packers return failed to generate amid Green Bay's brass (especially after his on-again/off-again/on-again gyrations in March, when Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson were all set to welcome Number Four back before Favre waived them off, saying he was staying retired) and that the Favre we see on the gridiron is the one that we're learing about in real life: instinctual, unscripted, and not given to deep thought.      Wayne Larrivee had a really good point the other day when he and I were on Dennis Krause's "Roundtable" on Time Warner Sports.    The Voice of the Packers said he knew there was something up when Favre had no real answer when asked at his retirement news conference what his future plans were.       Favre had...nothing.    

        As I write this, I'm hearing about another Favre chat with Ted Thompson, via ESPN's Chris Mortensen.     Favre says he asked Thompson if he was even welcome in the building if he'd return to Green Bay, to which Favre says Thompson told him that such a move would get Thompson fired.       Maybe I'm dense, perhaps I'm still reeling from Ned Yost's decision to leave Jeff Suppan in against the Astros in today's 11-6 Brewers loss, but I don't get what Thompson meant by that (if, indeed, that's what he said).      Didn't Thompson TELL Favre he could return, provided he'd be willing to fight Aaron Rodgers for his old job?      Why would Favre's make Thompson think he'd be canned?      Isn't this what Thompson wanted?    

       Doesn't he know about my bet with my buddy Mike at Consumer Beverage in Hales Corners?