Winter weather prediction

CREATED Nov 27, 2012

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MILWAUKEE - One more day of cold air for southeast Wisconsin before a warm-up begins on

The wind will stay northwest today but then switch to the southwest tonight
and tomorrow ushering in mild air and the start of a warm-up that will continue into
the weekend.

We may see a few light rain showers or drizzle on Friday and a light rain
shower may return on Saturday or Saturday night, but there are no major winter storms in

Last night on my ten o’clock newscast I prepared a winter weather preview story,
which included the latest National Climate Prediction Center outlook for the months of
December through February.

Since the demise of the expected El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean a shift from warm and dry to cool and dry has occurred in that long range prognostication.

The dry is actually an equal chance for both above or below normal, but with the drought-like pattern continuing into December, dry is very possible.

The Pacific Ocean pattern is considered neutral right now, and over the past sixty
years there have been twenty winters in Milwaukee with that same condition.

During those neutral winters the temperatures averaged about a degree below normal with twelve
of twenty winters below normal. Twelve of twenty neutral winters were also below
normal for precipitation.