Next Tuesday, we find out whether Wisconsin voters will really send an extreme Left-wing hardcore Madison nut job to the U.S. Senate? Can a State that elected Scott Walker(and overwhelmingly rejected an effort to recall him last June) really elect kooky Tammy Baldwin?
My prediction? No and No.
There is no question that that Tommy Thompson campaign was hurt by having to "go dark" for about four weeks after the GOP Primary. This allowed the Tammy Baldwin campaign and the various special interest groups supporting her to try to unfairly define Thompson as something he's not.
Now that Thompson is fighting back and the Baldwin record is being exposed, it's difficult to see how she can draw much support outside the People's Republic of Madison and the increasing model of government dependency that is the City of Milwaukee.
Whether it's Baldwin's support for Iran, her support for a single-payer approach to health care (which is a half-step away from socialized medicine), or her extremist voting record in Congress, one thing is clear. Baldwin may be very much in step with her Congressional District - but she's way out of touch with most of Wisconsin (and most of the country).
I continue to believe that Wisconsin is a slightly center-right State - just like I believe America still remains a center-right country. When Wisconsin elects Democrats, they tend to be relatively moderate (think Jim Doyle or Herb Kohl) as opposed to being from the Left-wing fringe of the Party. Whatever you may think about Baldwin, there's no question that she's way outside the mainstream.
Absent a huge Obama victory in Wisconsin (which I don't see happening), I think Thompson will win next Tuesday. Part of the reason is that he's simply much more qualified to be a U.S. Senator than Baldwin. Another factor is that I simply don't believe that Wisconsin voters will really send a Left-wing kook like Tammy Baldwin to the U.S. Senate.
We'll see.
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