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The Jeff Falconio Blog

The BCS race

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In past years the Florida State-Virginia Tech game would be one of the bigger contests played but not this year with the Hokies slumping at 4-5.  Florida State on the other hand is cruising toward the ACC Championship with an 8-1 record.  Nevertheless, tonight's matchup carries some weight to it with conference and perhaps BCS title implications.  Here's a look at how the conference races stack up.

Big Ten

Nebraska leads the Legends Division courtesy of a 23-9 win over Michigan.  Both teams are tied atop the division at 4-1.  Northwestern is lingering with a 3-2 mark but will need help.  Nebraska ends the year with Penn State, Minnesota and Iowa

Despite an uneven year Wisconsin can sneak into the Big 10 title game thanks to ineligibility of Penn State and Ohio State.  The Badgers can turn the season around with wins over the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.  However, before that stretch Wisconsin plays Indiana.  A win this week and the Badgers will have a trip to Indianapolis wrapped up.

It's looking like a Nebraska-Wisconsin rematch for the Big 10 title game.



With Florida State's early season win over Clemson the Seminoles have an open path to Charlotte.  The 'Noles take the Atlantic Division with either a win and a Clemson loss or a win this week and a win next week.  After the Va Tech game tonight Florida State faces Maryland next week.

The Coastal Division is much more wide open with Miami at 4-2, Duke and Georgia Tech at 3-3 and Virginia Tech with a slim chance at 2-3.  Basically the Hurricanes have the easiest road with just two conference games remaining, including a potential winner-take-all season finale against Duke.

The Florida State-Miami rivalry likely will have a new chapter at the ACC Championship in Charlotte.  The Seminoles beat the Hurricanes 33-20 on October 20.



Kansas State is firmly in control with a 6-0 record and a win over second place Oklahoma.  Texas and Oklahoma State both have an outside shot but it's basically the Wildcats conference to lose.  It's really only a question of where KSU will land, the BCS title game or the Fiesta Bowl?


Big East

Louisville and Rutgers are tied at 4-0 and will meet in the season finale on Thursday, November 29.  At 2-1 Cincinnati is still alive but will need help due to the loss to Louisville.  The intrigue here is if Louisville remains unbeaten how high will they climb in the rankings?   It doesn't look like the Cardinals will factor into the BCS title race but if they end 12-0 would they be a draw for either the Fiesta or Sugar?


Pac 12

It's all about Oregon in the North Division.  The Ducks are cruising and end the year with Stanford and Oregon State.  Wins there and Oregon heads to the conference championship game where they'll also likely be the host for the title game.  Oregon State and Stanford square off this weekend the loser will be behind the eight ball.

The South Division is a three way race between USC, UCLA and Arizona State.  USC and Arizona State meet on Saturday while the Trojans play UCLA next week.  It could play out that the USC-UCLA winner takes the division.

Oregon is in the same boat as Kansas State, it's a matter of how the BCS standings look, so it'll be either a Rose Bowl visit or a spot in the BCS championship.



If Georgia beats Auburn on Saturday the Bulldogs win the SEC East.  If Georgia loses then Florida wins the division.

Alabama is almost a lock in the West but should the Crimson Tide fall to Texas A&M this week there's a chance the Aggies can win the division with an Alabama loss to Auburn.

You can pretty much bank on a Georgia-Alabama title game.


Here's how I see the BCS coming into the final four weeks:

Rose Oregon State-Nebraska

Fiesta Kansas State-Notre Dame

Sugar Florida-Oklahoma

Orange Florida State-Louisville

BCS Championship Alabama-Oregon

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