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Crunching the Wisconsin Early Vote Numbers

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Via Ben Domenech. Some serious number crunching on early voting Wisconsin:

Democrats entrusted their GOTV effort to much of the same union-heavy organizational structure which has been thricely curbstomped by the Walker/Spicer effort over the past eighteen months. Second, unlike elsewhere in the country where a significant ramp-up was required, the Republican GOTV effort has never stopped running in Wisconsin, and what they’re seeing anecdotally really does amount to a breakthrough in the white deer+Packers demographic which has always eluded them. But third has to be the shocking early vote numbers from the state, which really do indicate an Obama machine which has failed to deliver an advantage for the president in a state that’s gone blue in six consecutive presidential elections.

Here’s a few of those early vote numbers which stand out: One of the first signs of trouble for the Democrats during the Walker recall was when Dane County, which has about a 110k population advantage on Waukesha county and includes blue-dominated Madison and the University of Wisconsin campus, had only about a 2k advantage in early voting and absentees. Democrats later claimed the surprisingly close number was due to a lack of college kids in Madison. As of the latest update from Wisconsin early voting, the gap between Dane and Waukesha is once again 2k. But that's with a massive increase in the overall vote, meaning the gap is even less statistically significant than before. So here's the big question for Wisconsin Democrats: where are your college kids? What happened to them? Why do you have to send Katy Perry to Milwaukee this weekend and Bruce Springsteen to Madison on Monday in the hopes of getting them out?

More, via the obsessive early vote tracker @ConArtCritic: “Compare the gap for early between Milwaukee and the WOW (the 3-1 Republican advantage counties of Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha) total early vote. Milwaukee County (2.3-1 Democrat), which has nearly twice the population of those three combined, is only netting 1,500 more early votes. Total absentee votes statewide thru Wednesday are 200k short of 2008 totals, and of that figure the WOW counts for a near equal portion to that of Milwaukee, with Dane way behind.” In other words: Democrats' hopes of winning Wisconsin require them to mount a massive Election Day turnout, driven by a motivated base... exactly the sort of thing that formed the basis of many inaccurate predictions and failed to materialize at all during the recall. It’s possible this time will be different, of course. But how likely is it? Winning may really require the Obama machine to work without a hitch.


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