MU's Skewed Dem+5 Poll
Another day, another skewed poll that over-samples Democrats and under-weights Republicans.
The only thing consistent about Wednesday's MU Law poll is its penchant for wild, unexplained swings in voter sentiment.
In a year in which the numbers have moved only incrementally, MU would have us believe that Wisconsin voters have experienced massive-- and largely unexplained -- mood swings in the last few weeks.
That swing also turned a 3 point Obama lead (August) into a 14 point Obama lead (September).
On closer inspection,it turned out that the September MU poll had a +11 Dem sample. Jeff Wagner called that poll "embarrassingly inaccurate and it makes me wonder what's going on at Marquette."
Two weeks later, the whiplash continued: MU discovered another seismic shift in the electorate, reporting that both races were essentially tied, with Romney down by 1; Thompson up by 1. That poll had a +1 Dem sample -- a 10 pt swing in just a month.
Today, it comes out with a poll with another big shift: Obama 51; Romney 43. Baldwin 47 Thompson 43.
One GOP insider dismissed the result with a single word: "'absurd."
MU's new likely voter Party ID is 44 GOP, 49 DEM. That is a +5 Dem sample on election day. Other pollsters are predicting a +1 Dem turnout based on the enthusiasm of GOP voters and leaners. Those polls also show Romney/Thompson also leading among independents. (Rasmussen has Wisconsin at Romney 49-Obama 49.)
So the direct comparison of likely voter samples from Marquette is:
Last time (10/14), sample was -1 GOP, Romney was -1, Thompson was +1
This time (10/30), sample is -5 GOP, Romney is -8, and Thompson is -4.
Who’d do better job on foreign policy?
The challenger bled among independents in the last two weeks? Why, because of the debates?