Swing State Bounce
Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama. Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.” Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.
In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.
There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio. NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28. This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats. Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.